Confirmation Bias--I'm in Denial
OK, so one of the big branches on my tree of a problem, according to Dr. Ian, is that I have a very strong negative confirmation bias. That means that I expect things to happen a certain way and I over-validate evidence of negative outcome while ignoring most other signs of positive evidence that something isn't going to turn out badly. OK, I know that I have this problem, but see, it's not a problem--it's fucking reality!!
Things do tend to turn out badly. Or they only turn out well after much suffering through badness. They just do! I swear it's not a confirmation bias. :D OK, I offer the following pieces of evidence into the record:
* Yes, I did get an award. But ONLY after much laboring and cursing and not being helped (except by this one woman, who was very helpful). But other people were not helpful. That's putting it mildly.
* New Stinky Person comes to work for us wa-ay back in October. I had a negative "bias" that she wouldn't turn out right for the job. Now, tell me that's not reality??
* If the phone rings and it's my mother, what might I be able to expect? Probably something, well, hmmm...negative.
In fact, most of my dealings with others I have a negative confirmation bias about. And those turn out to be true, too. Batmite! comes into the office--administration has probably fucked with him again. Turns out to be *true*. On and on and on. I deal in the negative. I make lemonade from lemons all the time. It's part of my m.o. Maybe I'm invested in seeing the negative? But good god, somebody show me the positive outcomes. Because I'm not in the habit of dealing with them.
-- Virgil
posted by contemplator at Sunday, March 30, 2008
8 Comments:
This explains a lot about what you have said in some conversations with me.
Ironically enough, as soon as I thought about putting this post up, I had the expectation that you would use it as an excuse. Guess that's another "bias" that is, in fact, reality.
An excuse? I am actually agreeing with your own words here. Are you backpedaling now?
I have nothing to backpedal over. How might it "explain" anything, unless you're using it as an excuse? If it confirms basic facts that I may have already told you, how is it an explanation of anything? But whatever.
Hold on, you are describing what you previously described as pessimism to be 'basic facts'?
You know, this can only go badly, given the last few exchanges we've had. So screw it. I don't have to explain myself to you, and I'm not going to.
I'm also not voting for Ron Paul. Just in case it comes up as a subject.
Well, I did not realize the conversation would go in this direction either. I hope you realize I was not looking for any unpleasantness.
Furthermore, I have stopped trying to convince you to vote for someone you did not like for quite some time.
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